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You're holding 25 years — short of the 26-year breakeven. Asphalt is rational on cost; metal would need a non-cost reason (moss elimination, wind exposure, solar plans, resale).
Manufacturer warranties (25-30 years for architectural asphalt) assume average national conditions. Portland's 144 rain days plus dense tree canopy in many neighborhoods compress real-world life to 22-28 years, less without moss treatment. The lifecycle cost calculator uses 25 years as the asphalt baseline — actual life depends heavily on canopy density and moss management discipline.
For homeowners staying 15+ years, almost always yes. The breakeven year (when metal's total ownership cost falls below asphalt) is typically 18-22 years for canopied PDX neighborhoods. After breakeven, metal continues saving money each year. For homeowners selling within 7-10 years, asphalt is the more rational call — metal recovers maybe 50-70% of premium in resale value, not the full lifecycle savings.
Cedar combines high install cost ($13/sf) with demanding ongoing maintenance: biennial moss treatment ($300-$700/cycle in canopied PDX), fire retardant renewal every 8-10 years ($1,500), and shorter expected life than metal. The lifecycle cost calculator shows cedar typically as the highest 50-year cost. Cedar is justified only when historic district design review mandates it (Eastmoreland, Lake Oswego sub-associations) — not on cost.
Yes for initial install. The Q2 2026 baseline pricing includes the GAF/CertainTeed/Atlas/TAMKO 5-8% increases. Replacement cost projections assume 50% inflation per cycle (compound), which is conservative — actual roofing inflation has averaged 4-7% annually over the last decade.
Each neighborhood has a cost index multiplier based on PDX baseline (Hawthorne = 71% of state, baseline). West Hills (92% index) projects higher; St. Johns (63% index) lower. The neighborhood selector applies that multiplier to all costs. Maintenance costs are constant across kept neighborhoods because canopy density and moss pressure are roughly equivalent in canopied PDX areas; the major exceptions are St. Johns and Beaverton which see 30% lower asphalt maintenance.
